Published by The i Paper (1st September, 2025)
When Labour’s demoralised troops left Westminster in July for their summer break, they might have been forgiven for thinking things could not get any worse as they lay on their sun loungers recuperating after a dismal first year in government. They return to Parliament having watched their party slump further in the polls after Nigel Farage ran rings around them on crime and migration, stepping into the void to stir public discontent with his usual populist skill, aided by hate-fuelled forces of the far right stoking street protests.
Reform UK is 15 points ahead of Labour in the latest opinion polls – and 18 points ahead of the hopeless Tories they seek to replace on the right. This is remarkable for a party with four MPs, no real policies and led by the chancer who inflicted the Brexit disaster on Britain. In a general election, this would give Farage’s latest political vehicle a landslide win, with 400 seats. And to see how such success might irrevocably change our country, just look at the sinister events being unleashed in the United States under his idol Donald Trump.
No wonder Labour MPs are muttering over possible successors to Sir Keir Starmer just 14 months after they won a crushing victory over the Conservatives when his personal ratings are hitting record lows, public services remain in disarray and polls suggest more than eight in 10 people think Britain is in a bad state. They see drift in Downing Street, hear dismay of voters in constituencies and speak to each other about the Government’s weird lack of narrative. “Every day I wake up and it’s got worse,” said one. “Yet there just seems a strange paralysis at the top.”
Starmer is trying to inject new energy into his Government, shaking up his top team and preparing for a ministerial reshuffle. The next few weeks are critical, with party conferences, Trump’s state visit and Russia’s intensifying assault on Ukraine all soaking up considerable time for the Prime Minister. The toxic issue of illegal migration bubbles away – yet Labour looks confused over whether to echo or confront Farage’s stance. Looming over everything is the autumn Budget with Starmer’s equally unpopular Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, scrabbling around to find revenue to fill the gaping black holes in public finances without panicking bond markets or repulsing even more voters.
Perhaps Starmer, a decent and determined man, will find his political mojo. Yet it seems as if he has adopted the Joe Biden approach to government: trust voters to see his side’s positive steps rather than resort to snake-oil populism proffered by rivals. We know how that strategy turned out in the US, sadly. So what if his floundering Government continues plodding along the same path, failing to set out any sense of mission to enthuse the people that put them in power, let alone to fight for values they claim to espouse? What if the small boats keep coming, the cost of living and taxes keep rising, the mood of disgruntlement keeps growing and the smirk on Farage’s face grows wider? What if the party – threatened by populists on both flanks – demands a new chief after dire results at next year’s local elections?
Starmer might feel reassured as he looks at the two main contenders for his job around his cabinet table. The Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner, is popular in the party, but coming under fire again over her housing with unanswered – and potentially damaging – questions over whether she misrepresented her living arrangements to limit tax exposure. The smoothly ambitious Health and Social Care Secretary, Wes Streeting, who also possesses an impressive back story, is probably regarded as too much of a partisan on the right to win a leadership battle in the current climate. Additionally, both could easily lose their seats at the next election.
Yet there is one top Labour figure untainted by the Government’s unpopularity. And he enjoys positive approval ratings in the polls – more than 50 points superior to his party leader. A study last month by More in Common found he was the only Labour politician whom Britons would prefer to see in Downing Street over Starmer – and his support is strongest in Labour’s northern heartlands, where Reform is mounting a forceful challenge.
So just as Boris Johnson when London mayor haunted the reign of David Cameron, will Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham find himself increasingly in the spotlight as a successor – and a threat – to Starmer?
Burnham tried twice before to become Labour leader before leaving Westminster to become Greater Manchester’s first elected mayor in 2017. His tenure is regarded as a success in a city enjoying a renaissance – whether challenging Johnson over Covid restrictions, taking back buses under public control or twice winning re-election. After an insipid Cabinet career in the culture and health jobs, he has grown in confidence as mayor and developed a more straight-talking style, arguing that he benefits from being outside the Westminster bubble and seeing its failures more clearly. He is a critic of the effects of Brexit, supports proportional representation, backs free transport for teenagers and broke ranks on the need for a grooming inquiry.
Johnson starkly showed how it is much easier to be a popular politician as a local mayor than when in Downing Street, assailed at home and abroad by challenges. And Burnham would have to find a route back in to Parliament – winning approval from the National Executive Committee to stand as a candidate, then beating Reform in his north-western base – before attempting to fight for the top job.
If invited back to government, he would have to toe the party line, potentially soiling his freshly laundered personal brand. It is absurd to be even contemplating another prime minister so soon after last year’s win. Yet it says much about the state of British politics in this populist age that the mutterings of insurgency are growing louder – and that Labour’s man in the North is being viewed as their potential saviour.